Understanding Investment Bonds
Bonds are one of the main stream types of investment along with stocks and real estate, and if you want to learn how to trade bonds make sure that you get a good education in the subject 1st. There are a number of important points that you must understand about bonds before you start investing in them. Not understanding these things may cause you to purchase the wrong bonds, at the wrong maturity date.
Like all investments it is important to learn about what you are investing in, and certainly don’t just take the advice given to you by a bond seller without checking it out first yourself. The three most important things that must be considered when purchasing a bond include the par value, the maturity date, and the coupon rate.
The par value of a bond refers to the amount of cash you will receive when the bond reaches its maturity date. In other words, you will receive your initial investment back when the bond reaches maturity.
The maturity date is of course the date that the bond will reach its full value. On this date, you will receive your initial investment, and the interest that your money has earned.
Corporate and State and Local Government bonds can be ‘called’ before they reach their maturity, at which time the corporation or issuing Government will return your initial investment, along with the interest that it has earned thus far. Federal bonds cannot be “called”.
The coupon rate is the interest that you will receive when the bond reaches maturity. This number is written as a %, and you must use other information to find out what the interest will be. A bond that has a par value of say 00, with a coupon rate of 5% would earn 0 per year until it reaches maturity.
Because bonds are not issued by banks, many people don’t understand how to go about buying one. There are two ways this can be done.
You can use a broker or brokerage firm to make the purchase for you or you can go directly to the Government. If you use a broker, you will more than likely be charged a commission fee. If you want to use a broker, you should shop around for the lowest commissions!
Purchasing directly through the Government is not nearly as hard as it once was. There is a program called Treasury Direct which will allow you to buy bonds and all of your bonds will be held in one account, that you will have easy access to. This will allow you to avoid paying a broker or brokerage firm.
More advanced traders may try to buy and sell bonds to take advantage of the price movements, you can even swing trade them. But this is a very risky business if you don’t know what you are doing, you will need to take a swing trading course if this was something that wanted to, but again most people just buy and hold.
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Global Macro Trading and Macroeconomics
Global macro traders trade everything on earth. They are typically very active in stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies. Not only do they follow these markets but they follow them at least across the G-7 nations which multiplies the number of different markets and economies on their radar. Why do they do this? Primarily so that they can find the greatest amount of major dislocation possible. One great risk reward opportunity can make your year. Two or three can make you a fortune.
Now that you understand that the macro trader covers everything everywhere it should make sense as to why they must understand economics. The macro trader must have a solid grasp of global macroeconomics as well as country specific economics.
Possibly the best example of a country where you need to understand the economic situation is that of Japan. Their stock market is essentially flat from 1982 all the way to 2009. During that time it has gone up ten times and then fallen back and then climbed and fallen again and again. This was not a random occurrence and if you understood the economic dynamics at play it would have made sense to you. Essentially once their bubble burst in the early nineties they entered a period of stagflation and occasionally deflation and they have not had asset growth for thirty years.
If you had put money to work in Japan without understanding the macroeconomic situation you would have lost or best case broken even after years and years of work. Stocks do not always go up and the long term in Japans case has been 30 years so far. Yes, macroeconomics are important.
Our next great example of a successful macroeconomic based trade was that of buying commodities in 2002. We had just had a global tech bust and commodities had been underinvested for several years.
If you have been paying attention you would have seen that emerging market economies were picking up which of course drove up commodity prices. This insight would have had you long Brazil, China, Russia, India, and commodities like oil and base metals. If you didn’t pay attention to the global economy you would have missed the majority of the move.
Many investors, especially of the value ilk stick their noses in the air when you tell them that the global economy matters. In 2008 they learned that the ways of the macro trader are very powerful and are worth following as most value funds lost at least forty percent and most lost sixty or more.
Global macro trading and macroeconomics are very much intertwined and are excellent disciplines for all investors to learn. Don’t be close minded and instead broaden your horizon and you will find a lot of money out there.
Online Stock Trading
The discovery of the Internet has brought about many changes in the way we conduct our lives and our own business. We can pay our bills online, go shopping online, go banking online, and even make a date online!
We can even participate in online stock trading. Online stock investors love having the capability to look at their investment accounts whenever they want to, and online stock brokers like having the ability to take orders over the Internet, as opposed to using the telephone.
The majority of stock brokers and brokerage houses now offer online stock trading to their clients. One other great thing about online stock trading is that fees and commissions are often lower. While online stock trading is good news, there are some drawbacks too.
If you are brand new to trading, having the ability to actually speak with a stock broker can be very beneficial, if you aren’t knowledgeable about the stock market, online stock trading may be a rather risky thing for you to do. If this is the case, make sure that you learn as much as you can about trading stocks before you start online stock trading.
You should also remember that not everyone has a computer with Internet access with them, although many mobile phones can get online, so you might not always have the ability to get online to make a trade. You will need to be sure that you can call and speak with a broker if you use an online stock broker. This is true whether you are an advanced stock market trader or a beginner.
It is also important to go with an online stock brokerage company that has been around for a while. You won’t find one that has been in online business for fifty years of course, but you can find a company that has been in business that long and that now offers online stock trading.
Sure, online stock trading is a fantastic thing – but it is not for everyone, the impetuous can lose money quickly. Think long and hard before you decide to opt for online stock trading, and be sure that you really know what you are doing!
Retirement and Online Stock Trading
The discovery of the Internet has brought about many changes in the manner we conduct our lives and our personal business. We can pay our bills online, go shopping online, go banking online, and even make a date online!
We can even participate in online stock trading. Online stock investors love having the capability to follow their investment accounts whenever they want to, and online stock brokers like having the capability to take orders over the Internet, as opposed to using the telephone.
The majority of stock brokers and brokerage houses now offer online stock trading to their clients. Another great thing about online stock trading is that fees and commissions are often lower. While online stock trading is great, there are some drawbacks too.
So, if you are very to trading, having the ability to actually speak with a stock broker can be very beneficial, if you aren’t stock market conscious, online stock trading may be a rather dangerous thing for you to do, although advice from a stock market trader is expensive. If this is the situation, make certain that you learn as much as you can about trading stocks before you start online stock trading.
You should also be aware that not everyone has a computer with Internet access on them, although many mobile phones can get online, so you may not always have the ability to go online to make a trade. You will need to be sure that you can call and talk with a broker if you use an online stock broker. This is the case whether you are an experienced|advanced stock market trader or a novice.
It is also important to sign up with an online stock brokerage company that has been in business for a while. You won’t find one that has been in online business for fifty years of course, but you can find a company that has been in business that long and that now offers online stock trading.
To be sure, online stock trading is a wonderful thing – but it is not for everyone, the impetuous can lose money quickly. Think carefully before you decide to opt for online stock trading, and make sure that you really know what you are doing!
Global Macro Investing and Yield Curve Strategies
The yield curve is one of the most and best used instruments in the global macro investors arsenal. The yield curve is usually thought of as a bond traders tool but good global macro trader know better. You can use the yield curve to trade bonds, stocks, currencies, and really just about anything that affects the economy, heck you can even use to for refinancing your home.
The Treasury yield curve is the curve you get when you plot out the yields for different maturities. For instance if the 90-day T-Bill is at .2 percent and the 10-year T-Note is yielding 3.5 percent you have an up sloping yield curve as the long dated Treasuries are paying a higher yield then the short dated Treasuries. Usually you would also plot out the two year, five year, and thirty year along with the ninety day and ten year. This will give you a better picture for what the yield curve is really saying.
This is great but how do you use it to make money? Well the global macro investor knows that if the curve is sloped from the lower left to the upper right that things are looking good for the economy. If on the other hand it is sloping downwards the Fed has tightened and the economy is or will be slowing.
You may be asking yourself why this is. The reasons are actually fairly simple and straightforward. If the curve is steep, meaning the short term rates are low and the long term rates are high it means that banks are lending as they are able to borrow short term from the Fed and charge long term rates to their customers. Obviously when business is good for the banks, they will be lending as much as they can. This in turn spurs new business spending as money is available.
On the other hand if we have an inverted yield curve, where it slopes from the upper left to the lower bottom then banks will not lend as they are borrowing money at more expensive prices then they can loan it out for. This obviously curtails the credit markets and slams a break down on the economy. When this happens the Fed inevitably has to come in and lower rates to bring things back in line and help the economy grow again.
Think of bonds and interest rates as a teeter totter where yields are on one side and bonds are on the other. If bonds go down, rates go up. If rates go down, bonds are going up. In a regular inflationary environment this is always the case unless there is a severe credit quality issue.
So if you are a global macro investor that is using the yield curve you can forecast when to get in and when to get out of stocks and bonds based on the macro economy. At the same time you can use the information and trade currency differentials as well.
Of course as with all things in the market nothing works every time. In fact the quote history never repeats itself, but it often rhymes is a very appropriate statement. Used along with proper risk controls the yield curve can become one of the global macro investors best timing tools and economic gauges.