Why You Should Trade the Crosses?
Finding the right currency pair to trade should be of utmost importance to you as an individual trader. As an individual trader you will only have $1000 to $10,000 at the most as equity in your trading account. Opportunity cost is a real cost for most individual traders. Funds committed to anyone position are funds that cannot be used for in other possibly more profitable trades.
In forex trading, almost all the currency pairs are linked to one another, one way or the other. As an individual trader, if you only trade US dollar, you risk missing promising trades and opportunities offered by other currency pairs.
Most of the trading in the currency markets is done through the direct buying/selling of USD. You should always keep an eye on the crosses while deciding about a trade in order to gauge the strength/weaknesses of a currency. This way you know which currency pair is the best to trade.
What are the crosses, you may ask? Currency pairs that do not involve the dollar are known as Crosses such as EUR/AUD, CHF/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP etc. Almost 90% of the currency pairs that are actively traded in the forex markets involve the US dollar. In simple terms, over 90% of the all the currency trades have US Dollar on one side of the trade. So what is so special about a cross?
Lets make it clear. A reasonable way to trade equities is to trade from big to small. Suppose, you determine that the stock market is expected to rise. But since you have limited funds as individual investors, you need to choose your stocks carefully.
It would be good to look at the sector specific indices. Find the most promising sector. From there, you should look within that index. Find the most promising companies that are expected to perform well over the coming months. This big to small thinking is very solid. You need to think in the same manner while trading forex.
Movements in crosses should never be overlooked as they can often hide the footsteps of large players. For example, a major investor like Warren Buffet may be bullish on Euro due to some fundamental reasons. He may try to fly under the radar and buy Euros against Pound Sterling, Swiss Francs, and Yen etc. Warren Buffet is sometimes heavily involved in currency trading when he senses an opportunity. He has sometimes been successful and sometimes unsuccessful.
Crosses are extremely important to swing or momentum traders, they are used as forecasting tools to predict which currencies are leading the pack. Ignore the crosses and you will be stuck often with currency pairs that do not move at all.
Limited funds in your account means you should always try to choose the currency pair that is expected to move the most. But, how exactly can you come to a reasonable conclusion? By taking a look at the crosses!
Cross movements sometimes work to amplify the move of a major currency pair or sometimes these movements minimize the effects. For example, in EUR/USD currency pair, if Euro is dropping against USD but rising against the GBP also called Cable, the net effect would be to limit the size of the EUR/USD fall. If ERU/GBP is rising, it is an indication that the Euro is outperforming the British Pound.
Since you have limited funds, which currency pair is the best to chose? Any EUR/USD selling pressure is likely to be offset by the buying pressure of EUR/GBP. GBP/USD sales will likely to be amplified by the cross sales EUR/GBP.
Since, EUR/GBP is rising; it would be better to short GBP also called the Cable instead of Euro. In simple words, you should short the pair GBP/USD; the chances are you will make many pips as compared to shorting EUR/USD. If we had not done our homework and randomly picked one of the two currency pairs for shorting, we may have missed a good opportunity.
Can You Learn To Trade Like a Hedge Fund Manager? (Part II)
You must have read Part I of how hedge fund managers trade forex. You need to understand that hedge fund managers are always on their nerves edge. They constantly look for strategies that work.
Hedge fund managers aim is to make good money consistently while always on their guard because a trade can go bad any time. If a trade goes bad, they know beforehand how to get out of a bad position before it results in a huge loss. You as individual investors also would put your own money at stake in the hope of making good money.
You should decide whether you want to range trade or trend trade? Many hedge fund managers are trend following traders. If you want to become a trend trader than you need to become a master of predicting and anticipating trends in your favorite currency pairs. If you want to be a contrarian trader and range trade, than you should understand how to scalp.
You also need to decide the time frame that you will trade most. You should decide whether you will use the 5 min charts, 30 min charts, 4 hour charts , daily charts etc and why.
Do you want to hold your position overnight or you are happy as a day trader? If you are in a job, do you have time to trade in the evening or the night and how much time you can spare? What time is best for you?
Learn the art of entry and exit. You will need to learn technical analysis for this. Technical analysis is essential for your success. Should it be multiple entry, multiple exits? Should it be single entry, single exit? Should it be multiple entries, single exit? Should it be single entry, multiple exits?
You should understand the money management rules. Never ever put more than 1% of your equity at stake in a single trade. Learn to calculate the risk/reward ratio.
Now, test drive the forex system by back testing and forward testing. Back testing can be done on Metatrader and other platforms. Forward test your strategies on a demo account.
Open a mini account and try to test it live with a small amount of money. This way you will not lose much money but will be playing against your emotions.
Ultimately trading is all about developing discipline and controlling emotions. You dont get this feel in demo trading when you know nothing is at stake.
Get intimate with your strategies. There are two primary types of trading strategies”one that has a high percentage of profitable trades and one that has a high profit factor.
The key factor here is to know and find out what type of market environment your trading strategy performs well in and what type of market environment your trading strategy fails in. Because only then will you know what works under what conditions and what does not work.
Understand how much drawdown you can afford on your trading account with this trading strategy. You can establish a bench mark figure using a back test. Decide before hand how much drawdown is acceptable before you pull the plug out of the trade.
The last step of thinking or trading like a hedge fund manager is self reflection on your past trading performance. Self reflection is very important. Most of the time we become so absorbed with trading that we do not notice the obvious and keep on repeating it again and again.
This is why it is good to spend some time on a weekly or monthly basis to self reflect on your past trading performance. You need to fix a certain level of pips per day for yourself and keep on tweaking your trading strategies until you reach that figure.
Fundamental Trading Strategy Based on Interest Rate Differentials
As a forex trader, you should be aware of the role played by the interest rate changes in the general economic and investment climate. You should know that interest rates are an essential part of investment decisions and can drive currency markets as well as the stock and commodities markets in either direction. After the unemployment figures, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions are the second largest currency market moving release.
The impact of the interest rate changes not only have short term consequences but also have long term impact on the currency markets. One Central Banks decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interconnected forex markets.
In forex trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the quoted currency interest rate. In the currency pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the quoted or counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the USD interest rate.
Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable for you as a forex trader. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the interest rate changes can be crucial to the currency pair movements.
The reason why this is profitable is that international investors like big banks, hedge funds and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.
Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currencies. London Inter Bank Offer Rate (LIBOR) and the 10 year government bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency appreciation or depreciation.
Lets take an example, suppose the Australian 10-year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10-year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread in this case would be 350 basis points in favor of the Australian Dollar.
Suppose the Australian government raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The 10 year Australian government bond yield would also appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread is 375 basis points in favor of AUD. The AUD will also be expected to appreciate against USD.
The general rule of thumb used by professional traders is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against the other currency in the pair. This is important information for you as a trader. Interest rate data is available on Bloomberg. Keep track of the currencies in the currency pairs that you trade with that data.
Factors That Affect the Forex Markets in the Short Term
Fundamental traders depend on fundamental analysis in trading forex. Technical traders depend on technical analysis in trading forex. But the importance of economic data cannot be underestimated in shaping trading strategies.
USD is the most important currency in the world. 90% of currency transactions are done in USD. In almost most of the currency trades, USD is either the base currency or the counter currency.
Choosing the right currency pair to trade is very important for you. USD is the most important currency and most probably you will be also trading USD most of the time. You should know that the release of certain economic data has significant and lasting impact on USD.
With time, you will learn that forex markets reaction to the release of different economic data also changes with time. US GDP figures used to be important for USD but they dont impact much.
EUR/USD is the most liquid pair in the forex market and is heavily traded. The release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on the first Friday of each month has become important in recent years. These figures makes EUR/USD and other pairs involving US Dollar highly volatile for some time until the markets digest the importance of these figures.
Similarly, the release of US housing sales number every month has become very significant for USD in the recent years. Previously, forex markets used to give more importance to US Trade Balance.
If you depend on range trading as a trading strategy, you should avoid the day NFP data is released for trading. This is a highly volatile and jittery day for the forex market.
However, as a breakout trader, understanding of which economic data is expected to be released can help you in your trading. You should plan your trades in accordance with the importance of the economic data to be released.
In brief, knowledge that certain economic indicators make the forex markets move most is important for you as a trader. It is also important for you to know that particular economic data, the market considers most important at any point in time.
You should also know which data causes knee jerk reaction in the markets and which pieces of data will have lasting reaction in the forex markets.
My Thoughts On Maverick Money Makers
Hey there and welcome to my article. If you have tried in the past or are interested in making money online then there’s no doubt that you would have heard about maverick money makers.
Maverick money makers is the largest membership site at the moment for people wanting to make money and it has many members joining each day.
If you are thinking about joining maverick money makers then carry on reading this article to find out what I like and dislike about the program before you buy.
I have actually been working from home and making a living from the internet for the past four years or so and have seen many products come and go in that time. The truth is that there are thousands of products online to learn how to make money from.
Firstly Ill say that there has been some controversy about the maverick money makers program because some people say that they are teaching blackhat methods.
From what I’ve seen of the maverick money makers club members area everything apart form one method is all whitehat.
If you have been a member of any other make money membership clubs you may have been disapointed at the rate new content is added but the great thing about maverick money makers is new content is added regularly.
As there is so much content I’d advise you to focus on one method before you move onto the next method in MMM.
Another thing I really like about maverick money makers is the support is very good. I had a question about one of their methods and had a helpful email back within about half an hour.
The only criticism I have about the program is that there is so much information in there that you may feel overwhelmed.
The best thing to do is to spend a while going through everything and then choose the model that you like the best and apply it. Then when you have that working for you move onto another method.
Maverick money makers really over delivers and has some great information in there. I’d recommend it if you can stay focused and apply what you learn.
Learn How To Trade Forex
Learning forex trading should not be difficult. With decent understanding of money management rules and a good trading strategy, you should be ready for conquering the forex markets.
You should always try to understand the big picture. You should start each trading session by looking at the daily charts. After looking at the daily charts zoom into 4hr, 1hr, 30min, 15 min etc charts. Forex trading is about interpreting the past price action as well as about interpreting the future price action.
You need to ask: Is the market ranging or trending before each trade. You should ask: Is there any long term patterns that have developed. By taking a general look at the different charts you will develop a general understanding of how the forex markets are behaving in the short as well as the long term.
You should try to understand the general direction of your favorite currency pairs. You can use candlestick analysis and moving averages (simple as well as exponential) to identify long term patterns and reversals.
Bollinger bands applied to 4hr charts can be used to identify the daily trading range. Most of the price action is expected to be within the Bollinger bands. Any moves outside the bands can be viewed as short term abnormalities and ignored.
Do some scenario planning, once you have a general overview of the market. Make sure you know what news is scheduled to be released and what is the expected market reaction.
Understanding the big picture does not mean knowing the whole picture. You should only focus on your favorite pairs. It takes a longtime and effort to understand a currencys behavior, how it reacts to things like oil prices, interest rates etc. So concentrate only on a few pairs in forex trading.
Always try to take notes and keep a daily trading journal in which start by analyzing the general direction of the markets for that day. What is your thinking about how the markets are going to react to different news that is expected to be released that day? Your entry and exit for the trade. What is your expected profit?
After each trade, look at what went wrong and how to avoid it in future trading! In case of a good trade that made you pips, analyze how many pips you could have made more and how to tweak your trading strategy for better results in the future trades.
Keep these general tips in mind while you learn forex trading. Never ever trade without putting stop losses! Practice on the demo account for at least three months before starting live trading with your real money.