Develop Trading Discipline
You need to develop trading discipline. If you come to a point in your market analysis in a trading session when you have no confidence on the accurate direction of the market forecast, choose not to trade. Always remember, a lost opportunity is better than lost capital.
You should wait for the market conditions to become clearer before you enter a trade. You should increase the probability of success by trading when the trade setups are strong and risk to reward ratio is not more than 1:2. This is far more important in forex than in stock markets. The forex markets move a lot as compared to the stock markets.
You need to learn that high leverage will give you the opportunity to make a lot more money much quicker. But in case you go wrong, currency markets are ruthless. You can get your account wiped out. You dont see an opportunity clearly. Try to sit on the sidelines. You dont have to trade every time. Wait for the market conditions to become clearer. You should learn to be a patient trader. Wait for the market to come to you.
You need to learn that leverage is a wonderful money making weapon. It is the essential key to making money in the currency markets as no other markets allow high leverage that this market allows. A leverage of 100:1 means that with a $1000 deposit, you can trade $100,000. This huge amount of leverage will give you the opportunity to make the kind of returns on your investment that you want.
But using high leverage also has the potential of making you lose some or all of your capital if you trade foolishly. Take the example of credit cards. The bank lets you borrow huge sums of money using your credit card on the promise that you will pay it back.
But if you abuse your credit card, it can lead you into heavy debt or even bankruptcy. Just like managing your credit card, you need to manage leverage in forex trading. Just because you have $10,000, does not mean that you should trade 10 lots. Using all your capital would be foolish.
A very conservative yet very effective method would be to never leverage more than 20% of your account. Thus, you should only trade two lots with a $10,000 capital. Using good money management and discipline, you grow your account successfully in a short period of time.
Dont forget the power of compounding. The compounding factor applied to your capital can make it grow fast. Many people want to get rich quick. They take unnecessary risks while trading thinking that a few big wins will make them rich. They dont focus on proper trading principles. You need to develop the discipline in yourself to follow simple money management rules.
Suppose you open a mini account. Start by trading one position of a tenth of a lot. You will not make much money in the beginning. The position size is only one tenth of a normal lot. Be patient! The percentage of returns will compound over time. You will trade a much larger sum of money with the passage of time.
You should make realistic goals that can be achieved over time. Always trade with the money that you can afford to lose! Trading with money that you cannot afford to lose is foolish. Dont borrow money to trade. Dont use money that you would use to pay monthly utility bills. Dont use your life savings. You are not a gambler.
Learn To Use Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands?
Moving averages are a very popular tool among the traders because they are a lagging indicator of the price action. Short and long term trends are easier to identify using moving averages.
MAs are calculated on the traders specifications. They can be formatted to different style of trading and time frames. For example, in case you want to use a 90 time frame moving average, the prices of the last 90 times frames is added together and divided by 90.
A moving average can be calculated based on the opening, high, low or closing price within a time frame. Since the closing price is the most important price, most traders prefer to use the closing price. There are three types of moving averages. First one is the Simple Moving Average. Second is Weighted Moving Average and the third is the exponential moving average.
The simple MA is simply calculated by dividing the price in each time frame by the number of time frames as the name suggests. A weighted MA places more weight to the current prices as compared to the prices in the last few time frames. In an exponentially smoothed MA, the chart is exponentially smoothed out with less emphasis on the prices in the latter time frames.
Another important technical indicator is the Bollinger Bands. What are Bollinger Bands? These are bands plotted at a standard deviation above and below a moving average. The base of a band is moving average. The bands width is determined by volatility. The standard deviation is a measure of volatility so the bands are self adjusting. They widen during volatile markets and contract during less volatile periods. Bollinger bands bracket almost 90% of the market action.
Bollinger bands have many useful characteristics. Knowing when the prices are high and low, a trader can make rational investment decisions by comparing price action with the action of other indicators. They are curves drawn in and around the price structure. This provides relative definitions of high and low.
Bollinger bands can be applied to mutual funds, forex trading, futures, indices etc. As volatility lessens, sharp price action tends to occur as the bands tighten. A continuation of current trend is strongly expected when the price moves outside the bands.
A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band. When bottoms and tops made outside the bands are followed by bottoms and tops made inside the bands, reversal of the trend is highly likely.
When the bands are flat and narrow, this indicates that price volatility is lower than in previous time periods. The 10% price action outside the bands is most likely going to approximate areas where prices will return to within the bands.
When the bands begin to flare and widen, this indicates increased volatility and start of a new strong trend. Wide bands are usually taken as an indication of a very strong move.
Global Macro Trading and Macroeconomics
Global macro traders trade everything on earth. They are typically very active in stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies. Not only do they follow these markets but they follow them at least across the G-7 nations which multiplies the number of different markets and economies on their radar. Why do they do this? Primarily so that they can find the greatest amount of major dislocation possible. One great risk reward opportunity can make your year. Two or three can make you a fortune.
Now that you understand that the macro trader covers everything everywhere it should make sense as to why they must understand economics. The macro trader must have a solid grasp of global macroeconomics as well as country specific economics.
Possibly the best example of a country where you need to understand the economic situation is that of Japan. Their stock market is essentially flat from 1982 all the way to 2009. During that time it has gone up ten times and then fallen back and then climbed and fallen again and again. This was not a random occurrence and if you understood the economic dynamics at play it would have made sense to you. Essentially once their bubble burst in the early nineties they entered a period of stagflation and occasionally deflation and they have not had asset growth for thirty years.
If you had put money to work in Japan without understanding the macroeconomic situation you would have lost or best case broken even after years and years of work. Stocks do not always go up and the long term in Japans case has been 30 years so far. Yes, macroeconomics are important.
Our next great example of a successful macroeconomic based trade was that of buying commodities in 2002. We had just had a global tech bust and commodities had been underinvested for several years.
If you have been paying attention you would have seen that emerging market economies were picking up which of course drove up commodity prices. This insight would have had you long Brazil, China, Russia, India, and commodities like oil and base metals. If you didn’t pay attention to the global economy you would have missed the majority of the move.
Many investors, especially of the value ilk stick their noses in the air when you tell them that the global economy matters. In 2008 they learned that the ways of the macro trader are very powerful and are worth following as most value funds lost at least forty percent and most lost sixty or more.
Global macro trading and macroeconomics are very much intertwined and are excellent disciplines for all investors to learn. Don’t be close minded and instead broaden your horizon and you will find a lot of money out there.
Learn To Trade Exotic Currency Options
Currency Options are used by companies as risk management tools. What are Options? Simply stated, it is a contract that gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to buy an underlying asset under specific conditions on payment of a premium.
The buyer may or may not exercise the right. However, if the buyer of an options contract exercises his/her right, the seller is obligated to perform.
In all foreign currency transactions, one currency is purchased and another is sold. Consequently, every currency option is both a call and a put option. A call conveys the right to buy the underlying currency at a specified price. A put gives the buyer the right to sell at a predetermined price.
Why options are important as a risk management tool. Suppose a Japanese company is going to make the payment for its import of raw materials in 3 months time in USD.
The Japanese company can stay unhedged and purchase US Dollar in prevailing spot rate in three months time. On the other hand, it can hedge by buying USD forwards or it can use an options strategy.
One of the strategies available to the Japanese company is to buy JPY put/USD call option. The effect of buying the JPY put option is to put a ceiling on the cost of imports in case JPY depreciates. The exporter limits the cost to a maximum while not limiting the minimum. Now lets discuss five exotic options that you can trade to make profits under different market conditions.
Digital options are inexpensive, simple and easy to trade. If you believe the EUR/USD rate is going to be above 1.0900 after two months but you are not sure about the timing of this move, buy a digital option. If after two months, the EUR.USD rate is indeed above 1.0900, you get your predetermined payoff. If not, your digital option will expire and you with lose only a small premium.
One Touch Options are perfect for those traders who believe that there will be a retracement and the price of a given currency pair will test a support/resistance level. The one touch options pay a fixed amount if the market touches the predetermined barrier level.
A No Touch Option is a great way to profit from a trending market. The no touch option pays a fixed amount if the market never touches the barrier level that you choose. All you need to do is to determine the desired payoff, the currency pair, the barrier price and the expiration date.
A Double No Touch Option is perfect for you if you have the successful record of identifying and profiting from breakouts. But you have always lost money when the market is ranging. On the other side, you can use a Double One Touch Option if you know how to pick the tops and bottoms in a ranging market. However, you have always lost in a breakout market.
Learning to Avoid Emotions in Forex Trading
One of the most crucial yet overlooked elements of successful trading is maintaining a healthy psychological outlook. At the end of the day, traders who are unable to cope with the stress of the market fluctuations will not withstand the test of time. No matter how skilled they may be at the scientific elements of trading.
As a good trader, you need to be emotionally detached in making trading decisions. One of the attributes of good traders is that they accept losing. Your trading decisions must not depend on fear and greed. Make decisions based on an intellectual level. Traders who get emotionally involved in trading make hasty decisions resulting in substantial errors. They try to whimsically change their strategies after a few losses. In case of a few winning trades they become carefree.
Good traders are emotionally balanced. In the midst of a losing streak, they try to take a break before fear or greed starts to dominate their strategy. You cannot win every trade; you must be psychologically strong enough to cope with losses. Even very successful traders go through stretches of losing trades but they are emotionally strong enough to cope with it.
If you are going through a bad stretch, it may be time you think of taking a break. Take a few days off from watching the markets and trading to clear your mind. Continuation to trade relentlessly during tough market conditions can breed greater losses and ruin your psychological confidence.
Make no mistake about it, no matter how much you study, practice and trade; there will be stretches of losing trades. You cannot always win. The key is to make losing trades small enough in order to live to trade another day. By using good money management rules, you can overcome a lot of bad luck in your trading. Never ever put more than 2% of your equity at risk in a single trade.
You need to control your emotions in order to become a master trader. One constant is the human emotional behavior despite many new methods that have been introduced to traders. After all, markets are just people selling and buying. Markets are only a reflection of investors emotions.
People afraid of losing their money start to sell in a panic. Fear of losing money makes the market prices to head lower. Greedy people buy trying to catch a free ride. Fear of losing a good opportunity makes the market prices to go up.
You need to learn technical analysis as a forex trader. Technical analysis will make you understand how to capture profits from movements in the price. You should understand how price action takes place. Develop a trading system that is ruled based. Dont make decisions based on emotions.
The best method to overcome emotions in trading is to develop your own trading system that is ruled based. It should be mechanical in nature. Trading is an art. Learn trading as an art. There will always be 10% of discretion in each trade. Develop a trading system that has clear cut rules for entering and exiting a position and rules out most of the discretion. Discretion means using emotions. Make rules to avoid discretion. Use those rules consistently. There maybe a few losses. With a good forex trading system, you can be sure the number of winner will be greater than the losers.
Money Management in Currency Trading (Part I)
Before you open an account with a forex broker and start trading live, you should know that the most important thing for you is good money management. Money management means how much of your portfolio, you are willing to risk on a single trade. How many contracts your risk tolerance warrants?
The important thing in trading is to learn how you can improve your investment results by making small changes to your trading strategies. Good money management rules can make the difference between becoming a successful investor in the long run or an unsuccessful one.
Have you ever played poker? If not, watched it being played online or on TV! If you have then you will never see a good poker player play all his/her cards on a single bet. Good poker players know that by risking only a small percentage of their money on a single bet, they can win and lose. But he/she will still play the next hand. If he/she puts everything on the table on a single bet; it will have to be a 100% sure bet. An impossible thing, you can never be 100% sure. Life is full of probabilities. Nothing is for sure.
Forex trading is far more complicated than playing poker. You are dealing with hundreds of unknown variables that affect the markets instead of only 52 cards. To succeed in forex trading, you must understand and implement the money management principles.
Many pitfalls will cross your way while trading. As a trader you should be constantly aware of two emotions; greed and fear. In case you win a trade, you will become greedy and would want to risk more to make one big win. You would want to strike it rich in one or two trades. This will drive you to take more and more risk.
When you lose a trade, you become afraid to risk enough of your money on the next trade. Fear takes over and impairs your decision making, making you lose confidence in your judgment and decision making. Lets see how fear and greed can play havoc with your trading.
Lets suppose you have a run of successful trades. You are feeling overconfident and you are not satisfied by risking only 2% of your account on a single trade. You want to risk more on the trade. The more you have in a trade, the more you will make if you are right. You increase your risk to 5%, you win. You increase it further to 10%, you once again win. You finally decide to put 25% of your equity at risk on a next trade, but misfortune strikes. Your successful run comes to an end. You lose.
Suppose you had a $100,000 trading account and you had foolishly risked 25% or $25,000 on one trade that you desperately wanted to win. Losing $25,000 means you have only $75,000 in your account now after your loss. How much you need to make to get back the original balance of $100,000; you need to make $25,000 again to go back to the original balance. It means you will have to make 25,000/75,000= 33%, so you risked 25% but now you will need to make 33% to get back your original amount.
Many investors once they lose a trade become desperate and try to risk more to recover their original loss. They end up losing more and more and very soon those investors destroy their accounts. Most of them are out of trading forever soon. There are other traders who try to reduce risk even more on making a losing trade; eventually they lose any opportunity for meaningful growth in their accounts.
Use Pivot Points Using Pivot Points What Are Pivot Points? Pivot Point Trading
Pivot points work as a filter in all markets that have established ranges. They should be taken as powerful leading indicators in your technical analysis tool kit. Most of the other indicators used in technical analysis are lagging. Lag means they only inform you about the price action that has already taken place.
Pivot points tell you about the future price action. They are calculated based on a simple mathematical formula that determines the next time periods range based on the previous time periods data. It includes the low, the high and the closing price for that trading session.
If you dont know what is a range, then a range is the high and low of a given time period. Markets are just people buying and selling. The high represent the buyers exuberant bullishness. The low represents the sellers pessimistic bearishness for that particular trading session.
A pivot point is that special line drawn in sand where most traders turn from being bearish to bullish or bullish to bearish. These points are used in currency trading to tell if the market sentiment has shifted from being positive/long to negative/short. If the price is trading above the point, you should take a long position. And if the price is trading below the pivot point, you should take a short position.
Now lets calculate the pivot point for one trading session. Pivot= (Low+High+Close)/3. You can use a 4 hr chart to calculate the pivot point for the next session. Just plug in the values of low, high and close for the 4 hour session to calculate the next pivot point. Thus you can have 2 pivot points for each 8 hour session and 6 pivot points for the 24 hour session.
Take a long position as long as the price stays above the pivot point and trade a short position as long as the price is below the pivot point. The thinking behind the pivot points is simple yet powerful and highly useful. If the buyers are willing to pay more for a currency pair now than they were 4 hours ago, than at least for the time being the markets are bullish. Conversely, if the buyers are not interested in buying for the time being than for the time being the market will stay bearish.
Pivot point work like a filter for you. Accept only buy entry signal if the price is trading above the pivot point. And only accept the sell signal if the price is trading below the pivot point. We have used the example of 4 hour charts. You can also use daily, weekly and monthly charts.
Pivot point will help you determine the entry and exit for each position. They can also be used in conjunction with other technical methods. Pivot point analysis is a robust, time tested and a reliable market analysis tool.
Many new currency traders and even experienced traders ignore learning pivot points considering them complicated. Nothing is far from the truth. They are very easy to use. Learn how to determine the market sentiments in any timeframe you want to trade with pivot points. But always keep this in your mind; these points are only a guide, they should not be taken as the Holy Grail. Pivot points can help you filter out excess information and avoid analysis paralysis from information overload.