Use Pivot Points Using Pivot Points What Are Pivot Points? Pivot Point Trading
Pivot points work as a filter in all markets that have established ranges. They should be taken as powerful leading indicators in your technical analysis tool kit. Most of the other indicators used in technical analysis are lagging. Lag means they only inform you about the price action that has already taken place.
Pivot points tell you about the future price action. They are calculated based on a simple mathematical formula that determines the next time periods range based on the previous time periods data. It includes the low, the high and the closing price for that trading session.
If you dont know what is a range, then a range is the high and low of a given time period. Markets are just people buying and selling. The high represent the buyers exuberant bullishness. The low represents the sellers pessimistic bearishness for that particular trading session.
A pivot point is that special line drawn in sand where most traders turn from being bearish to bullish or bullish to bearish. These points are used in currency trading to tell if the market sentiment has shifted from being positive/long to negative/short. If the price is trading above the point, you should take a long position. And if the price is trading below the pivot point, you should take a short position.
Now lets calculate the pivot point for one trading session. Pivot= (Low+High+Close)/3. You can use a 4 hr chart to calculate the pivot point for the next session. Just plug in the values of low, high and close for the 4 hour session to calculate the next pivot point. Thus you can have 2 pivot points for each 8 hour session and 6 pivot points for the 24 hour session.
Take a long position as long as the price stays above the pivot point and trade a short position as long as the price is below the pivot point. The thinking behind the pivot points is simple yet powerful and highly useful. If the buyers are willing to pay more for a currency pair now than they were 4 hours ago, than at least for the time being the markets are bullish. Conversely, if the buyers are not interested in buying for the time being than for the time being the market will stay bearish.
Pivot point work like a filter for you. Accept only buy entry signal if the price is trading above the pivot point. And only accept the sell signal if the price is trading below the pivot point. We have used the example of 4 hour charts. You can also use daily, weekly and monthly charts.
Pivot point will help you determine the entry and exit for each position. They can also be used in conjunction with other technical methods. Pivot point analysis is a robust, time tested and a reliable market analysis tool.
Many new currency traders and even experienced traders ignore learning pivot points considering them complicated. Nothing is far from the truth. They are very easy to use. Learn how to determine the market sentiments in any timeframe you want to trade with pivot points. But always keep this in your mind; these points are only a guide, they should not be taken as the Holy Grail. Pivot points can help you filter out excess information and avoid analysis paralysis from information overload.
Oil and Currency Trading
Wall Street watches oil prices like a hawk. Remember the early part of 2008 when oil prices skyrocketed from near $70 to almost $150 within a few months. This was more than a 100% increase in oil prices. Many hedge funds heavily betted on the increase in oil prices and made a windfall.
It is being studied whether the increase in the oil prices was due to speculation by the hedge funds. When the stock markets crashed in the middle of 2008, most of the hedge funds had to liquidate their investments in crude oil futures to cover the redemption pressure on them. Oil prices collapsed. Oil prices are down now due to low consumer demand because of the global recession. But it is being predicted by the experts that with a recovery in the global economy, the oil demand will rise and the prices will go up again. Oil demand in China and India plays a major role now.
As oil prices go up, consumers are forced to spend more on oil. The more they spend on oil, the less they can spend on other products. The less they spend on other products, the less profit companies make. Declining profits made by these companies mean declining stock prices.
The opposite is also true. The less the oil prices become, the more Wall Street becomes optimistic about the profit potential of companies. This increased optimism leads to increase in stock prices. Two large futures exchanges are used to determine the prices of oil. They are the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).
Historically, rising oil prices have been associated with falling stock markets. NYME is where most of the crude oil futures are traded. By monitoring the movement of the crude oil futures in NYME, you can develop a feel of the future economic situation of the United States. Since oil is heavily traded in US Dollar, this affects the US Dollar. The net effect is however a bit complicated.
Lets take a look at it more closely to understand the two effects that pull USD with oil. When oil prices increase, the demand for US Dollar also increases. Most of the countries need US Dollar to pay for their oil imports. High demand for US Dollar means that it should appreciate.
But this is not the whole story. Increased oil prices also take its toll on the US economy. The question is which effect is more important for the forex markets.
The effect varies for different currency pairs. Suppose you are watching a currency pair that involves the USD and a currency representing a country that does well during the times of high oil prices. Take Canada that has huge oil reserves after Saudi Arabia. The effect would be depreciation in the value of USD/CAD pair. US imports more oil from Canada than any other country. And if you are watching a currency pair that involves USD and a currency whose economy is harmed by the rising oil prices, the demand for USD will rise.
So some currencies have positive correlation with oil prices and other currencies have negative correlation with rising oil prices. The currency pair CAD/JPY shows the strongest reaction to rising oil prices. Japan imports almost 100% oil.
Watch for CAD/JPY currency pair, when oil prices are going to rise again. CAD is positively correlated with oil prices. JPY is negatively correlated. So CAD/JPY has the strongest reaction to the increase in oil prices. It can be a very good currency pair to trade during times of oil price boom.
Getting to the Truths of Stock Trading
There are a lot of misconceptions surrounding the field of stock trading that trigger new trader’s fears and keep others from trying the profession at all. As a successful trader for over 15 years, I prefer to take a more positive approach and deal with the prevailing truths that exist in the field of stock trading. Here are just a few.
1. Stock trading success will come when you keep your trades low risk on a consistent basis over time. Sure, this attitude will result in you missing out on the occasional windfall that the movies have led us all to believe can happen all the time. However, I have discovered that searching for that godsend trade does nothing but result in a horrendous loss that can completely demolish the portfolio you have been working so hard to build. Better to stay lower risk with steady profits over time if you are looking to make stock trading more than a hobby.
2. You don’t have to spend all day trading to be extremely successful. This does not have to be a full time job. But please don’t misunderstand. I’m not suggesting another get rich with no work scheme. It takes time and effort to learn the sustems needed to achieve success at stock trading. But, by using GAP trading effectively, I profitably trade for 2-4 hours a day, plus another hour of pre-market preparation. In fact, I make a great income. With the right system, you can too.
3. Building on the knowledge and the experiences of other profitable traders can greatly accelerate your learning cycle. Don’t start from the drawing board because it will cost you a lot of money and ten or more years to make all the mistakes others have already made. It is just resourceful business sense to build on the knowledge of others. Didn’t your parents tell you “don’t reinvent the wheel”, but don’t we just turn around and do just that? Instead, read works by successful traders, take courses, find advisors and coaches, and use the insights of others to make your journey more enjoyable and low risk.
Stock trading is often depicted as mystical and only accessible to the gurus of the industry. Take it from a regular guy, that idea is not correct. With the right processes established and a good understanding of the basic truths of stock trading, anyone can be prosperous.
Does Success in Forex Depend on Intuition?
We often can see many traders using the same trading system? Surprisingly some of them are making profit while others are losing money? What is the secret? It is the intuition of successful traders helps them to make right decisions.
So what is trader’s intuition which he needs to be successful? It is the ability to make a decision that is not based on ration reasons. The choice of the risk level is one example.
One trader can take higher risk than another one. There is no right or wrong answer to a question about the risk involved in each trading. If a trader makes profit consistently then he found his balance. Usually that balance is found through trial and error plus intuition.
This is just one tiny example of utilizing the intuition. It doesn’t end on choosing the risk level for your trades. Market very often gives out contradictory information, which not always possible to process rationally. It’s very hard to keep in mind every parameter of changing currency market.
It is that subjectivity that plays major role in decision-making can be called an intuitive component in trader’s job. So what is intuition? Intuition is a way of receiving information from the environment. It’s a process of collecting the information that is invisible for our senses and mind.
However it is not true that the right decision comes entirely from intuition. It is also based on right analysis, market knowledge and trader’s experience. It does not mean you need to acquire all the information available about market and trading. All what you need is persistent focus of attention on the right components of your trading.
It is the intuition that has that power to direct your focus towards the more important information. It is almost like an instinct of perceiving the right information. However it develops with the experience.
Experienced traders have a “feel” of market. They feel the price movement and momentum of that movement. Therefore any small shift in the momentum will lead such trader to take action based on his experience and knowledge. That “feel” of market can be called intuitive.
If that trader loses that signal he can lose his investment. An intuitive ability of a successful trader serves him continuously. It happens on subconscious level, its like breathing for him. Even if he doesn’t realize it consciously the information is being processed intuitively on subconscious level.
All people are familiar with the life situation when action must be based not on rational decision making process. Sometimes it is not possible because of information overload or lack of it. Therefore we take actions based on our “inner voice”. Very often those actions are the most successful ones.
Psychology defines the trader’s intuition as an ability to see the market situation in it’s wholeness. But do we need to have such intuition from the beginning or is it something we can develop? This is an interesting question. In my opinion everyone has it but focused effort will help to develop it.
Support and Resistance Levels in Forex Trading
Learning technical analysis will give you the edge as a forex trader. It will develop your confidence in your ability to predict what will happen in the markets in the future.
But the most important drawback with most of the technical indicators is that they lag behind the markets. Lagging means part of the price action has already taken place before the movement is reflected by these technical indicators.
However, support and resistance levels especially those based on Fibonacci levels are considered to be leading indicators because they lead the markets in predictable paths. Now, when we say predictable, it does not mean guaranteed. But it can be pretty close.
Support is the price level that a currency pair has trouble breaking through to the downside. Support is also referred to as the floor of the currency pair price movement.
Resistance is the price level that a currency pair has trouble breaking through to the upside. Resistance level is also known as the ceiling of the currency pair price movement.
Many new forex traders find it surprising that there is a strangely predictable and reliable price action that takes place at the support and resistance levels. Most of the time, they will find the price action oscillating between the support and resistance levels.
Why it is that majority of the people begin buying and selling at the given support and resistance levels. There is nothing on the charts that forces the people to do so.
A simple explanation is this that majority of the forex traders think the support level as the best price available to them and considers it an excellent opportunity to buy once it reaches the support level.
Similarly, at resistance, majority of the currency traders think that currency pair is not favorably priced and has become overpriced. So they consider it as an excellent opportunity to short the pair.
You will have an edge and an advantage in your currency trading if you are capable of accurately identifying and predicting the support and resistance levels in the markets. As more and more traders use technical analysis in trading and calculate the support and resistance levels, the more these levels become self fulfilling prophesies.
One important indication of support and resistance levels is that price level is reached a number of times but it is never breached. Support and resistance levels can be horizontal for a ranging markets or they can be sloping up or down for a trending market.
What happens at the support level is that as traders begin to sell the currency pair and take profit, the price of the currency pair starts to drop down. As the price starts to fall, other forex traders who were interested in buying the currency pair watch how far it will go down.
Most of them have done their calculations as to how far the price level will drop down before they can go long. Past price action tells them that the price offered at the support level is the best price under the present market conditions. So when it reaches that level, most of them start buying and go long.
When there are more buyers than sellers, the price of the currency pair starts to rebound and rise. It rises till the resistance level determined by most of them when majority decide that the currency pair is now over priced and start selling.
This oscillating price action keep on repeating itself until and unless there is a fundamental shift in the markets that forces new levels and a new direction.
What Is Forex Automoney
It is only natural for people to prefer easy ways of getting rich, which is why a lot of investors have turned to stock trading robots and what not that promise profitable picks every time.
There are a select few that really do live up to what they tell their users however there is a sea of trading robots that only work to scam investors.
One program that is under the spotlight is Forex Automoney.
Forex Automoney is an application that was designed to assess and analyze the currencies market. Forex Automoney then gives out signals to the user regarding when to buy and when to sell. It follows the same kind of principle behind any other kind of trading robots.
Instead of having to do all the research yourself, Forex Automoney does all of that for you.
Being a day trader means you must keep track of a number of currencies, assess their current positons, study price changes and trading trends all so that you can make wise investments and maximize your profits.
Forex Automoney will do all of that for you, saving you time and freeing you from the hassles of doing all the research yourself. The only thing you should be concerned about is the signals that the program transmits. There are three different ways that the program can generate the signals.
Forex Automoney can give out signals intraday. The program will tell the user when to buy and when to sell six times in any given day.
Second, Forex Automoney can also give out buy or sell signals once a day. Thirdly, Forex Automoney can generate buy or sell signals once in any given week. For that particular option, the user will be able to trade once weekly
One thing you must understand is that Forex Automoney does not always give out winning picks all the time.
If you choose to trade weekly and it so happens that the signal is a bad one then you may suffer from really huge losses. The trick to mastering Forex Automoney is to trade widely so that you diversify your risks.