Support and Resistance Levels in Forex Trading
Learning technical analysis will give you the edge as a forex trader. It will develop your confidence in your ability to predict what will happen in the markets in the future.
But the most important drawback with most of the technical indicators is that they lag behind the markets. Lagging means part of the price action has already taken place before the movement is reflected by these technical indicators.
However, support and resistance levels especially those based on Fibonacci levels are considered to be leading indicators because they lead the markets in predictable paths. Now, when we say predictable, it does not mean guaranteed. But it can be pretty close.
Support is the price level that a currency pair has trouble breaking through to the downside. Support is also referred to as the floor of the currency pair price movement.
Resistance is the price level that a currency pair has trouble breaking through to the upside. Resistance level is also known as the ceiling of the currency pair price movement.
Many new forex traders find it surprising that there is a strangely predictable and reliable price action that takes place at the support and resistance levels. Most of the time, they will find the price action oscillating between the support and resistance levels.
Why it is that majority of the people begin buying and selling at the given support and resistance levels. There is nothing on the charts that forces the people to do so.
A simple explanation is this that majority of the forex traders think the support level as the best price available to them and considers it an excellent opportunity to buy once it reaches the support level.
Similarly, at resistance, majority of the currency traders think that currency pair is not favorably priced and has become overpriced. So they consider it as an excellent opportunity to short the pair.
You will have an edge and an advantage in your currency trading if you are capable of accurately identifying and predicting the support and resistance levels in the markets. As more and more traders use technical analysis in trading and calculate the support and resistance levels, the more these levels become self fulfilling prophesies.
One important indication of support and resistance levels is that price level is reached a number of times but it is never breached. Support and resistance levels can be horizontal for a ranging markets or they can be sloping up or down for a trending market.
What happens at the support level is that as traders begin to sell the currency pair and take profit, the price of the currency pair starts to drop down. As the price starts to fall, other forex traders who were interested in buying the currency pair watch how far it will go down.
Most of them have done their calculations as to how far the price level will drop down before they can go long. Past price action tells them that the price offered at the support level is the best price under the present market conditions. So when it reaches that level, most of them start buying and go long.
When there are more buyers than sellers, the price of the currency pair starts to rebound and rise. It rises till the resistance level determined by most of them when majority decide that the currency pair is now over priced and start selling.
This oscillating price action keep on repeating itself until and unless there is a fundamental shift in the markets that forces new levels and a new direction.
Why You Should Trade the Crosses?
Finding the right currency pair to trade should be of utmost importance to you as an individual trader. As an individual trader you will only have $1000 to $10,000 at the most as equity in your trading account. Opportunity cost is a real cost for most individual traders. Funds committed to anyone position are funds that cannot be used for in other possibly more profitable trades.
In forex trading, almost all the currency pairs are linked to one another, one way or the other. As an individual trader, if you only trade US dollar, you risk missing promising trades and opportunities offered by other currency pairs.
Most of the trading in the currency markets is done through the direct buying/selling of USD. You should always keep an eye on the crosses while deciding about a trade in order to gauge the strength/weaknesses of a currency. This way you know which currency pair is the best to trade.
What are the crosses, you may ask? Currency pairs that do not involve the dollar are known as Crosses such as EUR/AUD, CHF/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP etc. Almost 90% of the currency pairs that are actively traded in the forex markets involve the US dollar. In simple terms, over 90% of the all the currency trades have US Dollar on one side of the trade. So what is so special about a cross?
Lets make it clear. A reasonable way to trade equities is to trade from big to small. Suppose, you determine that the stock market is expected to rise. But since you have limited funds as individual investors, you need to choose your stocks carefully.
It would be good to look at the sector specific indices. Find the most promising sector. From there, you should look within that index. Find the most promising companies that are expected to perform well over the coming months. This big to small thinking is very solid. You need to think in the same manner while trading forex.
Movements in crosses should never be overlooked as they can often hide the footsteps of large players. For example, a major investor like Warren Buffet may be bullish on Euro due to some fundamental reasons. He may try to fly under the radar and buy Euros against Pound Sterling, Swiss Francs, and Yen etc. Warren Buffet is sometimes heavily involved in currency trading when he senses an opportunity. He has sometimes been successful and sometimes unsuccessful.
Crosses are extremely important to swing or momentum traders, they are used as forecasting tools to predict which currencies are leading the pack. Ignore the crosses and you will be stuck often with currency pairs that do not move at all.
Limited funds in your account means you should always try to choose the currency pair that is expected to move the most. But, how exactly can you come to a reasonable conclusion? By taking a look at the crosses!
Cross movements sometimes work to amplify the move of a major currency pair or sometimes these movements minimize the effects. For example, in EUR/USD currency pair, if Euro is dropping against USD but rising against the GBP also called Cable, the net effect would be to limit the size of the EUR/USD fall. If ERU/GBP is rising, it is an indication that the Euro is outperforming the British Pound.
Since you have limited funds, which currency pair is the best to chose? Any EUR/USD selling pressure is likely to be offset by the buying pressure of EUR/GBP. GBP/USD sales will likely to be amplified by the cross sales EUR/GBP.
Since, EUR/GBP is rising; it would be better to short GBP also called the Cable instead of Euro. In simple words, you should short the pair GBP/USD; the chances are you will make many pips as compared to shorting EUR/USD. If we had not done our homework and randomly picked one of the two currency pairs for shorting, we may have missed a good opportunity.
Trading Price Action in Forex Markets
To become a successful trader if you are new, you should immerse yourself completely in the subject in order to find your edge. If you already a winning at trading than you should know exactly what your edge is.
Even the most advanced traders find it difficult to understand, interpret and trade the sharp moves often seen in the forex markets. By learning to read and interpret price action, you can develop a huge advantage for you as a trader.
In a steep decline, one should be careful to measure the reaction of the longs. You must know if the move has the chance to turn into a rout.
You should look at the reaction of the longs as soon as the rate begins to go south, this way you will be able to determine if the market is sitting on a large number of long positions and whether traders want to dump their positions. In case of a spike followed by a sharp V recovery, you should avoid shorting the pair.
Masses of buyers entering the market at lower levels tell you that the market is not particularly long. Lower prices mean bargain prices for those wishing to accumulate long positions.
Moving averages (MAs) are among the oldest, true and tested indicators. Widely used moving averages are the 50, 100 and 200 day MAs.
As said before, moving averages are lagging indicators. They relate with the past price action in the market. MAs can be used effectively in intra-day trading for entering and exiting positions in one way markets that are trending.
During times of sharp price moves, it becomes difficult for the traders to enter a position as retracements are far and few. This makes most of the traders confused and forces them to start taking arbitrary decisions.
MAs can be used as dynamic resistance levels in such situations. This can give better results than the static support/resistance levels used by majority of the traders.
The advantages of using Moving Averages like this gives you dynamic levels to trade off and gauge price action taking place in the market. This will help you avoid using arbitrary levels in entering or exiting a position.
Can You Learn To Trade Like a Hedge Fund Manager? (Part II)
You must have read Part I of how hedge fund managers trade forex. You need to understand that hedge fund managers are always on their nerves edge. They constantly look for strategies that work.
Hedge fund managers aim is to make good money consistently while always on their guard because a trade can go bad any time. If a trade goes bad, they know beforehand how to get out of a bad position before it results in a huge loss. You as individual investors also would put your own money at stake in the hope of making good money.
You should decide whether you want to range trade or trend trade? Many hedge fund managers are trend following traders. If you want to become a trend trader than you need to become a master of predicting and anticipating trends in your favorite currency pairs. If you want to be a contrarian trader and range trade, than you should understand how to scalp.
You also need to decide the time frame that you will trade most. You should decide whether you will use the 5 min charts, 30 min charts, 4 hour charts , daily charts etc and why.
Do you want to hold your position overnight or you are happy as a day trader? If you are in a job, do you have time to trade in the evening or the night and how much time you can spare? What time is best for you?
Learn the art of entry and exit. You will need to learn technical analysis for this. Technical analysis is essential for your success. Should it be multiple entry, multiple exits? Should it be single entry, single exit? Should it be multiple entries, single exit? Should it be single entry, multiple exits?
You should understand the money management rules. Never ever put more than 1% of your equity at stake in a single trade. Learn to calculate the risk/reward ratio.
Now, test drive the forex system by back testing and forward testing. Back testing can be done on Metatrader and other platforms. Forward test your strategies on a demo account.
Open a mini account and try to test it live with a small amount of money. This way you will not lose much money but will be playing against your emotions.
Ultimately trading is all about developing discipline and controlling emotions. You dont get this feel in demo trading when you know nothing is at stake.
Get intimate with your strategies. There are two primary types of trading strategies”one that has a high percentage of profitable trades and one that has a high profit factor.
The key factor here is to know and find out what type of market environment your trading strategy performs well in and what type of market environment your trading strategy fails in. Because only then will you know what works under what conditions and what does not work.
Understand how much drawdown you can afford on your trading account with this trading strategy. You can establish a bench mark figure using a back test. Decide before hand how much drawdown is acceptable before you pull the plug out of the trade.
The last step of thinking or trading like a hedge fund manager is self reflection on your past trading performance. Self reflection is very important. Most of the time we become so absorbed with trading that we do not notice the obvious and keep on repeating it again and again.
This is why it is good to spend some time on a weekly or monthly basis to self reflect on your past trading performance. You need to fix a certain level of pips per day for yourself and keep on tweaking your trading strategies until you reach that figure.
Learn to Trade like a Hedge Fund Manager (Part I)
The difference between a professional trader and an amateur trader is that a professional trader never goes into a trade blindly. You see hedge fund managers have to show good results to their investors in order to solicit their investments into their funds. Hedge fund managers have to convince their clients that they have a battle tested strategy.
As individual traders, our $20,000 trading account is as important as any $20 million hedge fund. Our $20,000 account is more important. We are using our own hard earned money on trading. A hedge fund manager is most probably trading with other peoples money.
Most of the hedge fund managers follow a step by step process to develop their forex trading strategies. There is no reason why should we as individual traders also not follow that step by step process to develop our own trading strategies. We cant afford to lose our hard earned money in unsuccessful trading.
One thing should be clear; every trader has to find his/her own edge. We can learn from others. But in the end, it is our own methods and insights that will make us succeed as forex traders in the long run. Lets discuss the step by step process of developing our own trading strategy like the hedge fund managers.
Start by properly defining your trading strategy. Every hedge fund manager like every individual trader follows a different methodology. Some traders use fundamental analysis. Other traders use technical analysis.
The first thing that you should understand is what type of currency trader you can be and what style of trading best suits you. Are you comfortable as a day trader? Do you want to be swing trader or position trader?
From the start, figure out whether you want to trade based on fundamentals or technicals or a combination of both. Hedge fund managers develop their trading strategies by defining clear cut trading rules and coding them. This way the hedge fund managers avoid the pitfalls of emotional trading.
Trading based on emotions is dangerous and will ruin you as a trader in the long run. Make your forex system rule based and mechanical with clear cut steps that you will follow in order to make your trading as unemotional as possible.
Some trade news. You should decide if you want to be a news trader. Whether you will use technical indicators in your trading, there are many so which ones and how! There are many currency pairs. You cant trade all of them. You need to pick a few favorite currency pairs. All currency pairs are not equal. You need to focus on only a few to become a successful trader.
Every currency pair requires a different strategy to succeed. You need to understand this. Some strategies work best on some currency pairs but dont work on others. Read more in Part II of this article.
Fundamental Trading Strategy Based on Interest Rate Differentials
As a forex trader, you should be aware of the role played by the interest rate changes in the general economic and investment climate. You should know that interest rates are an essential part of investment decisions and can drive currency markets as well as the stock and commodities markets in either direction. After the unemployment figures, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions are the second largest currency market moving release.
The impact of the interest rate changes not only have short term consequences but also have long term impact on the currency markets. One Central Banks decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interconnected forex markets.
In forex trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the quoted currency interest rate. In the currency pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the quoted or counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the USD interest rate.
Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable for you as a forex trader. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the interest rate changes can be crucial to the currency pair movements.
The reason why this is profitable is that international investors like big banks, hedge funds and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.
Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currencies. London Inter Bank Offer Rate (LIBOR) and the 10 year government bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency appreciation or depreciation.
Lets take an example, suppose the Australian 10-year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10-year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread in this case would be 350 basis points in favor of the Australian Dollar.
Suppose the Australian government raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The 10 year Australian government bond yield would also appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread is 375 basis points in favor of AUD. The AUD will also be expected to appreciate against USD.
The general rule of thumb used by professional traders is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against the other currency in the pair. This is important information for you as a trader. Interest rate data is available on Bloomberg. Keep track of the currencies in the currency pairs that you trade with that data.
Understanding How the Forex Brokers Make Profits
When you start currency trading, you are told by every forex broker that there are no commissions involved in forex trading. New traders take their brokers words as true and most think that the cost of trading is minimal.
Forex brokers are also known as FCMs (Futures Commission Merchants). They make profits through the bid/ask spread they charge their clients for each currency pairs. This bid/ask spread is your trading cost and profit for your broker.
Lets do a simple calculation. Spreads are usually overlooked by the individual traders as the price they pay for trading. So lets calculate your cost of trading.
Suppose you are day trading. 5 times every day, taking away the weekends, when you cant trade, there are 250 trading days for you.
As a day trader, you will open and close your position before the end of each trading day. That means each position is traded 2 times by you.
Suppose; your start with a deposit of $50,000. You use a leverage of 4 only, you are being cautious. So this $50,000 deposit will control (50,000) (4) = $200,000.
Your Annual Turnover will be; (5) (250)(2)(200,000)= $500 M. Huge! Now lets calculate how much your broker will make and what your spread cost is. Spread Cost= (Annual Turnover) (spread)/2.
Suppose further, the bid/offer spread charged by the broker is 3 pips. 3 Pips Spread Cost= (500M) (0.0003)/2= $75,000.
Suppose, the spread offered by the broker is only 2 pips. 2 Pip Spread Cost= (500M) (0.0002)/2= $50,000.
You can see yourself, the cost of trading with a 3 pips spread versus a 2 pips is $25,000. This is 50% of your account equity. You see, a 1 pip difference can result in $25,000 more as trading cost for you.
You will have to make a profit of $75,000 simply to break even. Trading costs are one of the reasons most active traders fail in the long run.